the future rides on OPEC
OPEC will continue to be the most important oil supplier in the world, despite fears that production will decline. Non-OPEC countries are expected to see production increase marginally, but the pressure will be on all producers to ramp up production to meet the rising demand from Asia and the US.
Light oil is not being found outside of the Middle East. In its place are heavier crudes and those with high sulphur content, both of which require a different refining process than what is applied to light, sweet crude. Though Canadian-US energy ties continue to grow, US foreign policy alone demonstrates the need for access to the remaining light crude. Trouble is, Aramco, which controls 98 percent of Saudi Arabia’s reserves, keeps us guessing about how much oil the Kingdom actually has, and how long it can feed our thirsty ways.
“Even under the most optimistic scenario, Saudi Arabia may be able to maintain current rates of production for several years, but will not be able to increase production enough to meet the expected increase in world demand” said Mathew Simmons, Author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. Other people think he is a nutcase.
| Global Oil Supply million barrels/day (mpd) |
||||||
| Country | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Saudi Arabia | 10.75 | 10.80 | 11.17 | 11.46 | 12.25 | 12.33 |
| Iraq | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Iran | 4.02 | 4.23 | 4.26 | 4.15 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| OPEC | 30.47 | 31.22 | 32.04 | 32.45 | 33.43 | 33.81 |
| US | 7.36 | 7.56 | 7.60 | 7.56 | 7.59 | 7.57 |
| Canada | 3.23 | 3.36 | 3.44 | 3.56 | 3.73 | 3.96 |
| Former USSR | 12.09 | 12.77 | 13.00 | 13.51 | 14.01 | 14.53 |
| Latin America | 4.47 | 4.93 | 5.13 | 5.32 | 5.45 | 5.72 |
| Africa | 4.10 | 4.60 | 5.06 | 5.31 | 5.47 | 5.47 |
| Biofuels | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Non-OPEC | 51.31 | 53.01 | 54.36 | 55.28 | 56.00 | 56.68 |
| World | 81.78 | 84.23 | 86.4 | 87.73 | 89.43 | 90.49 |